There was also a wind gust of 85 mph reported on Sewall's Point in Martin County. The National Weather Service reported a 79 mph wind gust at a weather station in Port St. Severe thunderstorm watches and warnings that were issued earlier in the day have expired. In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.Īs of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimentalĪn ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below). The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below). These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts. These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, May 05, 2023 Chances for above-average precipitation is also elevated (60%) for all the islands of Hawaii. Model guidance was also mixed or weak for precipitation in the East, and along the Eastern Seaboard, thus Equal Chances is forecast for that region as well.įor Hawaii, chances for above-average temperatures are enhanced across all the islands with Lihue forecast with the highest probabilities (70%) of above-average temperatures. Model guidance for precipitation in Alaska is mixed, thus Equal Chances is forecast for most of the state. The precipitation pattern across CONUS is also influenced by the forecast height pattern with probabilities for above-average precipitation enhanced for the West Coast, Rocky Mountains, and Southern Plains, and below-average precipitation forecast for the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Midwest. Chances for below-average temperatures are enhanced for the West Coast, Southwest, Southern Plains, and southern Alaska. This forecast height pattern suggests that chances for above-average temperatures are enhanced for the Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest, and parts of the Northeast Atlantic Seaboard. Height anomalies are depicted as near-normal over Alaska in a blend of model guidance and model guidance also agrees on a slight tilt toward below-average heights for the 2-week period across the Southwest, West Coast, and Southern Plains. During the 2-week period the models agree on an above-average height pattern across western Canada and the north-central regions of the continental United States (CONUS). The current Weeks 3-4 Outlook relies predominantly on the regions of agreement between the dynamical and statistical model guidance. Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat May 13 2023-Fri May 26 2023ĭuring the spring season, the influence of climatic states such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), along with the transition from La Niña to neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, can lead to enhanced uncertainty in the Weeks 3-4 Outlook. NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
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